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Breaking into the world’s most-visited art institution in the middle of the day, taking eight pieces of priceless historical gems and disappearing into Paris traffic on humble scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, carried out for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Experts who observe trends in global cultural theft, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a series of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the historical importance, continuing a trend that has appeared over the last decade in Europe, Britain and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the thieves.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to take valuable jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a Cartier store is more secure.”

A spate of aggressive retail store thefts mean that many outlets have beefed up their security in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, partly because of the in-built factor of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and partly the current economic climate in many western countries.

“Since Covid, authorities across the globe have reduced spending on law enforcement and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how at risk our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – featuring necklaces made up of precious stones and hundreds of gems, the crown of Empress Eugénie containing thousands of diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once possessed by a royal that the thieves left by the street on their way out – has naturally been compared with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman the thief.

Better points of reference may be the 2019 burglary of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from Blenheim Palace the same year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from a European museum or even a spate of robberies of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” explained Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, specialists say, the criminals would find it hard to sell them. “It's impossible to trade something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before touching such remarkable pieces.”

In the past, institutions were often hesitant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous works of art and would remain quiet out of embarrassment. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the storage and sale of taken items is risky business for any criminal.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a plan to conceal it, maybe by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an partner informing authorities to collect a reward.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the theft had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It's global news and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Altering taken items by melting down or re-cutting does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary cutting techniques give gems a bigger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Crucially, however, melting down or re-cutting eliminates the evidence of the theft. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to places with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as nearby as a city, and locate an expert to remove the stones,” said Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the museum, with a unauthorized official review expected to be published next month criticising “considerable” and “persistent” delays in modernizing systems and noting that surveillance were missing in many rooms. But security experts say showing valuable objects in older structures with a constant flow of guests comes with dangers that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “Many of them have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for thieves to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with secure windows.”

The best security systems for buildings should be designed “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “There should be several layers to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but old museums may be reluctant to uglify their appearance. Laser scanners can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the day as crowds walk through a museum.

The timing of the Louvre raid, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am local time, was common of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards change their shifts and prior to the museum is full of visitors who actually act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new devices that can notify more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to bypass protections. In the city, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a window with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in France about the historic structure had mostly focused on visitor management in the past decade, and not as much on security.

The museum has an on-site brigade of about 50 permanent firefighters, but their mission is mostly to protect the collection from fires and water damage. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to political will and money, and currently France simply has no resources.”