Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”