How Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine β a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu β a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal β and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us β for our nation β the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region β including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines β something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power β and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.