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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.