A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
